Well, as we’re getting closer and closer to postseason play, it’s time to start thinking about who’s out and who’s in when the NCAA Tournament rolls around. Obviously a lot can change in the next few weeks, but as tends to be the case with sports, it’s really never too early to start analyzing – especially something that has little reason or science to it and always sparks heated rants every Selection Sunday. So we’ll look at it on a team-by-team basis – both the chances the team has and a little synopsis on how their season has gone in general.
Boston College- Sitting at 4-8 in conference and 13-12 overall, BC’s season is looking like it’s just about finished barring a miraculous run to end the season or in the ACC Tournament. A few solid conference wins could get the Eagles an NIT bid, and it’s hard to be surprised given what they had coming into the season. Tyrese Rice has been the man all year for BC, and he continues to grow into an all-around scorer rather than the spot-up threat he entered Chestnut Hill as. Think a few other schools wish they hadn’t passed up on him out of high school? But in reality, Rice is the last of the Craig Smith-Jared Dudley- Sean Williams-Rice core group that made BC a big time threat, and the loss of one or two of those guys each season since 2005-06 has – not surprisingly – slowly taken them out of contention. But even in the point guard-talented ACC, Rice should get some dap for that 20.6 scoring average and those 123 dimes. Watch out next year if Rice and talented freshman Rakim Sanders get some help.
Clemson- The Tigers definitely look like an NCAA team right now. With two big-time guards in Rivers and Hammonds, and some serious muscle in the paint, Oliver Purnell’s squad has definitely improved from last year and sits at 19-7 (7-5 ACC). And most importantly, the Tigers bounced back from a devastating choke job against UNC to win two straight and right the ship again. This squad can full-court press with the best, and their athletic depth can cause problems for most teams in the country. But, they still can’t shoot the freaking ball through the hoop when they’re unguarded from the free-throw stripe. Along with Memphis, they continue to amaze by costing themselves major points and, in the long run, games – 62.5 percent from the line so far this year.
Duke- The Blue Devils have lost their last two ACC games and exposed some weaknesses in the process. Wake Forest and Miami – both very athletic teams – gave Coach K’s team trouble and put up a lot of points. And when the Blue Devils aren’t hitting their 3s, they can look very ordinary. That said, they still have a good shot at a No. 1 seed with a 23-3 (10-2 ACC ) record, although Tennessee looks like it might be heading for that No. 1 spot in the South. Duke will need a big push if it wants to go through Charlotte, but seriously, who realllly thought they’d be 23-3 at this point in the season to begin with?
Florida State – The Seminoles got a big-time win against Clemson and are pulling themselves back into the picture – but just the very edge of it. At 5-8 in conference play and 16-12 overall, they need to finish strong and have a solid ACC Tournament. Non-conference wins against UAB, Florida and Minnesota definitely help, but then there are the “what happened?” games, like November’s stumble against Cleveland State. The three-guard combo of Swann, Rich and Douglas is talented, but FSU probably has too much ground to make up at this point. Hello NIT.
Georgia Tech – 11-14 (4-7)- Just when you thought Paul Hewitt’s club had turned the corner, they dive bomb again and lose four straight games – three in the ACC. After an 0-3 start to the conference season, the Yellow Jackets reeled off four of their next five to get right back in it. But you have to win games at home vs. Miami or on the road against a young Virginia Tech team to really have a shot. So far this season, GT has close losses to Indiana, Kansas, UNC and a decent showing on the road against Connecticut. What they don’t have is a defining win, and therefore they aren’t close to a tournament bid right now. NIT could be an option.
Maryland – 17-11 (7-6) – Your classic bubble team. The Terps have their defining win against UNC in Chapel Hill, and they’re sitting at over .500 in the conference. But losses to Miami and Va. Tech in their last two games hurts. They still have time to get a few more signature wins wins this season, and Vasquez’s play at point combined with Gist and Osby down low could definitely get them there. But when the tournament committee looks at this squad, a couple things will stand out. In particular, losses at home to American, Boston College and Va. Tech. The Terps need a few more quality Ws to neutralize the gag effect from that American game.
Miami – The ‘Canes are becoming a nice story this season thanks to the program’s defining win at home against Duke this week. That will get them noticed, and they also have nice non-conference victories against VCU and Mississippi State. But in general, Miami’s non-conference schedule is weak and they need to fight against that with ACC play and the conference tournament. The ‘Canes sport a 19-7 record overall, but just 6-6 in the ACC (see: weak non-conference schedule). They really need to finish above .500 and get somewhere in the ACC Tournament to be assured an NCAA spot, but the Duke win definitely put them on the map.
N.C. State- 15-12 (4-9) – Gavin Grant’s ill-fated prediction to start this season will be remembered for a while, mostly because of how inconsistent the Wolfpack has been ever since. Sidney Lowe must be having lots of sleepless nights, such as the ones after losses to New Orleans (raise your hand if you’ve heard of that school) and East Carolina. The ‘Pack can get it done at times, as shown by a win against Villanova, but a 4-9 mark in the ACC is not going to draw consideration from the tournament selection committee – either the NCAA or the NIT. Brandon Costner is the new poster boy for the sophomore slump, and the Wolfpack are really hurting from inconsistent point guard play. N.C. State could easily be left hoping for another magical run in the ACC Tournament with a better ending than last year to sneak into the Big Dance.
UNC – 25-2 (10-2) – The Tar Heels have rebounded strongly from losses to Maryland and Duke and now seem to be in good position to gain a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season. Tyler Hansbrough is making his case for POY consideration every night (although KSU’s Michael Beasley is making a habit of dropping 40+ points every other night it seems), and UNC hasn’t lost much with Quentin Thomas at the point in place of the hobbled Ty Lawson. The Duke game to end the regular season could be a deciding factor as to who gets the higher seed, but the tournament committee seems to place an awful lot of importance on the conference tournaments, so I say the winner of that will secure the coveted placement.
Virginia – 13-12 (3-9) – rather than talk about the Cavaliers’ 3-9 conference record, let’s just lament over what Sean Singletary has to go through every game. He could be the most exciting player to watch in the conference with his assortment of jukes, speed deception and leaping ability for a little guy. He’ll be a nice find for some NBA team. But the poor man has to go through a horrific senior season because UVa. is inexperienced at almost every position, and chronic inconsistency has been the result. Not a fun way for him to go out, but he’s still putting on a show every night – I just watched him break some N.C. State defenders ankle with a crossover 30 minutes ago – as he nears the end of an incredibly successful career.
Virginia Tech – The Hokies are scarily inconsistent, as shown by the last three games. They get blown out by 39 against UNC – and it wasn’t even that close – before proceeding to score victories on the road against Maryland and at home against Georgia Tech to pull their ACC record up to 7-6. The problem for this club is that their record sits at 16-11 thanks to losses in almost every big non-conference game – a big downside come Selection Sunday. You can’t ever count a team out if they finish at .500 in conference play, but senior leader Deron Washington will need to be a lot more reliable on a team full of young guys that are as inconsistent as they come.
Wake Forest – 16-8 (6-5) – By far the best story of the season at this point, the Demon Deacons have really grown under coach Dino Gaudio. Blessed with two flashes for guards in Jeff Teague and Ishmael Smith, and a powerful force in James Johnson, WFU sits at 6-5 in the ACC after a very important win against then-No.2 Duke last Sunday. The extremely young Deacs take on UNC in 10 minutes, and a win on the road at the Smith Center would make them hard to push out of the tournament field even if they don’t do great in the ACC Tournament. A negative on their grade sheet is a lack of big-time non-conference wins – the three best are probably Iowa, Air Force and BYU. But in the past the committee has rewarded teams who grow as the season goes along, and WFU definitely falls into that category.
-Jesse Baumgartner
